ISSN/EISSN: 01215612 19606004
Subject:
Political Science
Publisher: Universidad de los Andes (Bogotá)
Country: Colombia
Language: English, Spanish
Start year 1988
Publication fee:
No
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Loading...During December of 2005 and January of 2006 Chileans chose their new chief executive, Michelle Bachelet, and renewed Congress for period 2006-2009. The elections transpired without disruptions and granted the governing coalition "Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia" (CPD) its fourth uninterrupted mandate since transition to democracy in 1990. Given that the constitutional reforms of 2005 eliminated the designated senators, this administration enjoys the most comfortable majority in congress since 1990. Despite it is possible to see the Chilean government immersed in a context of institutional stability and booming prices of Chilean products at the international arena, this scenario could paradoxically manifest itself in a situation of social stress that might seriously complicate the agenda of President Bachelet and her coalition.

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Loading...This paper argues that the success of the leftist Encuentro Progresista-Frente Amplio in the 2004 Uruguayan election is the result of being the only untainted and credible opposition in the party system. After many governments in charge of the Partido Colorado and Partido Nacional, the EP-FA was the only party that cannot be held responsible for the country's bad economic situation because it was never in charge of the national government. Using data from a 2004 national preelectoral survey the paper shows that attitudes towards risk and economic assessments of the country's situation influence voting behavior in Uruguay. Risk acceptant individuals who evaluate negatively the country's economic performance have a higher probability to vote for the EP-FA than risk averse voters with a positive assessment of the country's economy.The evidence from the Uruguayan case suggests that the increase of leftist parties in other Latin American countries could be explained in the same way.

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Loading...On 2 July 2006, Bolivia held a national referendum about departamental autonomy as part of the process of state decentralization and as an institutional response to the dire political and social crisis. The inclusion in the constitution of figures such as referendum, constitutional assembly and citizen legislative initiation was the response to the social demands and unrest given under the framework of semi-direct democracy which allowed for an institutional solution to them. Even though the law that called for the referendum defines its national character, in several articles it states that a regime of departamental autonomy will apply immediately after the new Constitution is ratified in those departments where the referendum question was approved by a simple majority of the vote. This dual interpretation with regards to the mandatory nature of the results — at the national or the departamental level — is added to the debate about the nature of the autonomies.The party of the government, whose position won in the referendum and won a majority of the constitutional assembly, sketches a proposal that includes different versions of autonomy — indigenous, regional, provincial, cantonal, communal — that run counter, in some instances, to the departamental autonomies. In sum, the referendum on departamental autonomy, far from solving the problem, has transfered it to the constitutional assembly which puts at risk the democratic legitimacy of its decisions given that the new constitution must answer the demands of diverse political and social actors. Aside from these dynamics, this experience of citizen participation in the decisiom-making process is an example of the positive impact of an institutional reform in the strengthening of the democratic legitimacy and the efficacy of political institutions.

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Loading...This article addresses a key issue during the course of Mexico's 2006 presidential campaign: How did markets react to changes in support for the left-leaning Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD)? To answer this question, I develop a series of alternative arguments for how investors would respond changes in PRD support during the campaign. I evaluate the arguments using a times series GARCH model.The results show that changes in the levels of support for the candidate did not affect market returns but they did affect market volatility. Increased electoral uncertainty as margins narrowed, raised market volatility, while increasing electoral certainty regardless of whether rises in support were for López Obrador or the market-friendly Felipe Calderón (PAN), reduced it. This finding reveals that investors may have accepted the prospect of a López Obrador presidency ahead of the election but not the possible post-election social and political instability associated with a tight race.

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Loading...This article offers a first approximation to the recent electoral process that took Alan García Pérez to his second presidency. This is a process for which is not possible to give concluding remarks, mostly because of how recent it is and the lack of information available. With the intention to inform, we make some reflections germane to the Peruvian political debate. The article describes the first and second rounds and the factors that help explain the results, especially Alan García’s victory of and the resulting party composition of Congress. In its closing section, the article advances some general conclusions about the process.

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Loading...This article presents a preliminary assessment of the impact produced by the 2003 Political Reform on the Colombian electoral and political parties systems. The assessment is based on a comparative analysis of the electoral results for the House of Representatives in the 2002 and 2006 elections. Specifically, the article evaluates the effects of the new set of rules according to its main goals: reducing the number of political parties, strengthening the surviving parties and guaranteeing more representativeness in the seat allocation process. It must be noted that this article offers a preliminary balance of a reform adopted only 3 years ago; therefore, it can not be evaluated in a definitive way.

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Loading...The paper describes the main characteristics of the 2006 Brazilian Presidential elections. It explores two defining traits of this elections: the interplay between how retrospective economic voting and views towards corruption affected vote volatility and the final result of the election. The paper concludes by pointing out implications of the current elections to the strengthening of democracy in Brazil.


