Spatiotemporal Dynamic Changes in Cropland and Multi-Scenario Simulation in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin

Abstract

Cropland is crucial for food production, food security, and economic stability, especially in high-altitude Tibetan regions where it is limited. This study investigates the spatiotemporal changes and driving factors of cropland in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB) from 2000 to 2020. Using land use transfer matrices, center of gravity models, standard deviation ellipses, the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), it explores cropland dynamics and predicts land use for 2030. Results show the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the area of cropland entering the basin exceeded that leaving, mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches, with a dynamic degree of 0.97%. The proportion of cropland increased from 1.28% in 2000 to 1.52% in 2020. (2) The center of gravity shifted northwest (2000–2005), southeast (2005–2015), and northwest again (2015–2020). (3) Factors like elevation, temperature, precipitation, population density, and GDP correlated with cropland changes. Natural factors positively affected cropland expansion, while socioeconomic and proximity factors indirectly inhibited it. (4) The 2030 cropland conservation scenario in the PLUS model ensures cropland security, ecological protection, and controlled construction land expansion, aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals. Targeted cropland conservation measures can effectively promote sustainable land use and ecological security in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin.

Keywords

• cropland
• spatiotemporal evolution
• PLUS model
• PLS-SEM model
• Yarlung Zangbo River Basin