Study of Potential Embodied Carbon Transfer Flows Based on Link Prediction Model

Abstract

In the increasingly severe situation of global climate change, reducing CO2 emissions has become the consensus of governments. Grounded in the principle of consumer responsibility, policymakers are increasingly focusing on the cross-regional transfer of carbon emissions to delineate responsibilities more clearly. Evaluating embodied carbon emissions (ECs) in goods and services and forecasting transfer pathways is essential for driving the energy transition and devising effective carbon-reduction strategies. This study summarizes the evolutionary characteristics of the global EC-transfer network from 2013 to 2022 and analyzes the underlying causes. Further, a link prediction model incorporating both endogenous and exogenous factors is developed to investigate potential EC-transfer pathways. The findings reveal the following: (1) Since 2013, China, Russia, and India have dominated net EC out-strength, accounting for over 70% of total EC-transfer strength, primarily directed towards the European Union (EU) and the United States (USA). (2) The analysis of net EC out-intensity and in-intensity indicates that countries like Russia and South Africa have more carbon-emitting export-oriented industries in their economic structure and should transfer the corresponding carbon-emission responsibility to downstream consuming countries. Countries like Mexico and Switzerland, due to their reliance on importing EC-intensive products, should assume the corresponding carbon-emission responsibility. (3) Economies such as Germany, China, the USA, and France, characterized by high EC-transfer efficiency, serve as key drivers for the implementation of global emission-reduction strategies. (4) The link prediction based on the proposed hybrid similarity indicator has the highest accuracy. The results reveal a higher probability of forming stable links between net EC importers, and between net EC importers and exporters. This study enhances policymakers’ understanding of international trade and EC management, and facilitates the development of long-term strategies for cross-national collaborative emission reduction.

Keywords

• embodied carbon emissions transfer
• link prediction
• complex network
• structural evolution