Desertification, crop yield and economic development: a disaggregated analysis

Abstract

This study uses a global grid-level dataset, integrating gross domestic product (GDP) per capita with crop yield and climate variables to examine the economic impact of climate-induced desertification. We use the aridity index (AI) to measure desertification and find that annual variations of soil aridity have a more significant economic impact than precipitation and temperature when taken alone, with Africa experiencing the most significant effect. We identify the reduced agricultural yield as a potential channel behind the desertification-economic growth nexus. Finally, projections suggest that by 2040, desertification could reduce GDP per capita in sub-Saharan Africa by up to 10%. These findings underscore the need for policies to mitigate the economic impacts of climate-induced desertification in vulnerable regions, contributing to the broader understanding of how climatic conditions affect economic development.

Keywords

• Desertification
• crop yield
• economic impact
• GDP per capita
• aridity
• sub-Saharan Africa