Evaluating transit-oriented development (TOD) in Khartoum: A spatial analysis of bus terminals

Abstract

This study evaluates the potential for Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) in Khartoum, Sudan, a rapidly urbanizing city facing critical transportation challenges. By integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis (SMCA), we analyze bus terminals' spatial distribution and TOD potential over a 350 ​km2 area using 14 indicators across six primary and eight secondary criteria. The findings reveal significant disparities in TOD potential, with central transit nodes achieving index values up to 55, while 60% of the city scored below 15, indicating underdeveloped areas with limited transit connectivity. This research contributes a tailored, GIS-driven framework that addresses Khartoum's unique socio-economic and infrastructural context, offering key insights for policymakers. It highlights actionable recommendations, including enhancing connectivity, promoting mixed-use development, and prioritizing investment in peripheral zones. These findings provide a scalable methodology for assessing TOD potential in developing cities, supporting sustainable urban planning and transportation strategies.

Keywords

• Urban planning
• Transit-oriented development (TOD)
• Spatial multi-criteria analysis (SMCA)
• Sustainable transportation
• Transit connectivity
• Spatial statistical techniques