Monsoonal influence on particulate organic carbon variability through satellite data analysis

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The concentration of particulate organic carbon serves as a key indicator of biological productivity within the euphotic zone. Predicting it’s variability offers critical insights into broader patterns of organic carbon variability. This study aims to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of particulate organic carbon and to model its variance within Jakarta Bay, contributing to a deeper understanding of organic carbon dynamics in coastal ecosystems.METHODS: Monthly moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer satellite data for surface particulate organic carbon and chlorophyll-a during 2011 to 2023 periods were collected. In addition, seasonal in-situ data of salinity, sea surface temperature, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, and phosphate, were also analysed to examine the potential role of natural processes as drivers of particulate organic carbon variability in this bay. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model was selected for particulate organic carbon forecast.FINDINGS: The concentration of particulate organic carbon varied between approximately 230 and 340 within the observed range. High concentrations were observed at the nearshore waters due to the discharge from the river to the bay. The seasonal variation indicates that the highest concentrations occur during the north west monsoon. Meanwhile, the lowest concentrations were observed during the Inter-monsoon II. Despite high variability, the trend in particulate organic carbon remains nearly flat (Coefficient of determination 0.0002) from hindcast to forecast.CONCLUSION: The results showed that in Jakarta Bay, particulate organic carbon variability is primarily influenced by a combination of biological production and physical transport processes modulated by monsoonal forcing. The forecasting indicates minimal near-term change in particulate organic carbon dynamics along Jakarta's northern coast under current pressures.

Keywords

• forecasting
• jakarta bay
• monsoon
• particulate organic carbon (poc)
• riverine input