A novel multi-phase hierarchical forecasting approach with machine learning in supply chain management

Abstract

Hierarchical time series demands are often associated with products, time frames, or geographic aggregations. Traditionally, these hierarchies have been forecasted using “top-down,” “bottom-up,” or “middle-out” approaches. This study advocates using child-level forecasts in a hierarchical supply chain to improve parent-level forecasts. Improved forecasts can considerably reduce logistics costs, especially in e-commerce. We propose a novel multi-phase hierarchical approach for independently forecasting each series in a hierarchy using machine learning. We then combine all forecasts to allow a second-phase model estimation at the parent level. Sales data from a logistics solutions provider is used to compare our approach to “bottom-up” and “top-down” methods. Our results demonstrate an 82–90% improvement in forecast accuracy. Using the proposed method, supply chain planners can derive more accurate forecasting results by exploiting the benefit of multivariate data.

Keywords

• Hierarchical forecasting
• Machine learning
• Time series forecasting
• Supply chain management
• Demand forecasting