Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data

Abstract

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.

Keywords

• corona virus
• reported and unreported cases
• isolation
• quarantine
• public closings
• epidemic mathematical model