AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN ROMANIA BY USING SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS

Abstract

Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is one of the relatively recent time series analysis method which does not require a-priori assumption of a particular model. The method is based on the classical results in mathematics and has the advantage that it relies on the estimation of only two parameters. This paper briefly describes the main steps of the method and its use for forecast the time series of average monthly temperature in Romania. At the same time predictions with the same time series are made by using two other known forecast methods. By comparing methods in terms of prediction error we may find that using SSA leads to the best results.

Keywords

• time series
• forecast
• average monthly temperature