Perspectives on Serbia’s China–EU Hedging Strategy: Resilient to De-hedging?

Abstract

In an increasingly multipolar international system, small states like Serbia exert complex strategic dilemmas in navigating great power competition. This paper investigates Serbia's hedging strategy between its two main poles of foreign policy preference—China and the European Union—by integrating political, security, and economic insights. The authors assess three possible strategic orientations: Serbia's China-bound hedging approach, a de-hedging shift toward bandwagoning with the EU, and a “win-win” strategy that seeks to synergize the interests of both powers. Using a mixed-methods approach, we employ quantitative analysis based on the COMPASS Dataset alongside qualitative assessments of key contingency scenarios to evaluate Serbia's strategic calculus during 2024. Our findings show that risk-prone contingencies have an important impact on both hedging and de-hedging policies. They highlight the importance of adaptive, multipolar foreign policies in maintaining strategic autonomy while maximizing economic and security benefits. The analysis presented herein underscores that Serbia's hedging strategy is a delicate and complex approach to navigating the contemporary geopolitical landscape, implicating leveraging economic opportunities, security demands and political changes.

Keywords

• hedging strategy
• bandwagoning
• serbia
• multipolarity
• international relations
• compass project